I used entries in YouGov's profiler and other data to assess possible sources of support among the Scottish population for the three candidates standing in the Scottish Labour Leadership election contest to see which of them might most successfully pursue the party's cause in the May 2015 UK general election.
Neil Findlay as a relative newcomer, elected to the Scottish Parliament in 2011, has no profile recorded by YOuGov. He has only come to eminence in the context of the leadership race where he was a surprise candidate, His considerable trades union sponsorship and support gives his candidacy strength and reaches into the sections of the traditional Labour vote which turned towards the 'yes' vote in the independence referendum.
Sarah Boyack has been an MSP since the inception of the Scottish Parliament in 1999 and she has been a Scottish cabinet and shadow cabinet member. She, however, has no profile on the YouGov database which suggests that she does not have high name recognition in Scotland. Her nominations are geographically concentrated in the Edinburgh area - another feature which suggests a weak basis for her candidacy. She has, however, secured the backing of the Scottish Cooperative movement.
Jim Murphy has 675 YouGov panel members who like him. They tend to be very much the type of voter that the Scottish Labour Party must attract back from the SNP if it is to recover its position in Scotland. They are more likely to be males in west and central Scotland who shop at the Coop and who attend religious services.
The debate on BBC2 TV on Tuesday 18 Nov showed all candidates in good light but
I conclude that Jim Murphy is likely to be the most effective Labour leader in gaining popular support for the Labour Party across Scotland in 2015.
Data source
https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/
Neil Findlay as a relative newcomer, elected to the Scottish Parliament in 2011, has no profile recorded by YOuGov. He has only come to eminence in the context of the leadership race where he was a surprise candidate, His considerable trades union sponsorship and support gives his candidacy strength and reaches into the sections of the traditional Labour vote which turned towards the 'yes' vote in the independence referendum.
Sarah Boyack has been an MSP since the inception of the Scottish Parliament in 1999 and she has been a Scottish cabinet and shadow cabinet member. She, however, has no profile on the YouGov database which suggests that she does not have high name recognition in Scotland. Her nominations are geographically concentrated in the Edinburgh area - another feature which suggests a weak basis for her candidacy. She has, however, secured the backing of the Scottish Cooperative movement.
Jim Murphy has 675 YouGov panel members who like him. They tend to be very much the type of voter that the Scottish Labour Party must attract back from the SNP if it is to recover its position in Scotland. They are more likely to be males in west and central Scotland who shop at the Coop and who attend religious services.
The debate on BBC2 TV on Tuesday 18 Nov showed all candidates in good light but
I conclude that Jim Murphy is likely to be the most effective Labour leader in gaining popular support for the Labour Party across Scotland in 2015.
Data source
https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/
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