Friday, 14 November 2014

Labour's self-imposed leadership and electoral handicap














Labour’s self-imposed leadership and election handicaps

The current travails of the Labour Party leaderships in UK and Scotland illustrate the self-imposed handicap that the party imposed on itself when in 1981 it replaced the previous system, whereby the Leader of the Party and the potential prime minister was elected by the parliamentary party, with the electoral college system where the Labour MPs influence was reduced to one third, with individual members having one third of the vote and the remaining third being allocated to trades unions and other organisations affiliated to the party. 

Ed Miliband's election under this system in 2010 echoes the experience of Neil Kinnock in that both had the support of less than half the UK Parliamentary Party. Ed, indeed, was beaten by his brother David among MPs and among individual party members and only won because of the weight of support from trades unions. To have started his leadership with the support of less than half the Parliamentary Party and party members was not a good omen and that start undoubtedly contributes to his current leadership problems and the electoral challenges facing the party at the present time. The parallel with Neil Kinnock's leadership and his two general election defeats in 1987 and 1992 are not encouraging for Ed Miliband and the Labour Party. 

As the vanguard of the party Labour parliamentarians must have confidence in their leader if the party is to perform effectively and the system for selecting the leader should give them that confidence.

The current Scottish Labour Leadership contest

Similar issues are arising in the current Scottish leadership contest where Jim Murphy MP has won an overwhelming preponderance of nominations from among the Scottish MPs, MSPs and MEPs with 24 MP nominations - with more than half the 41 Scottish Labour MP supporting him. The rival candidates in the leadership race in Scotland have achieved, in the case of Sarah Boyack MSP, three MP nominations, two of whom are from Sarah's home city, Edinburgh; Neil Findlay has secured six. Murphy also outnumbers the other two candidates even though they are from the ranks of MSPs with 17 MSP nominations compared to the combined number of 13 supporting the other two candidates. 

Nonetheless Neil Findlay is gaining considerable support among trades unions and it is conceivable that he will defeat Murphy on the basis of support from the other sections of the electoral college in much the same way as Neil Kinnock and Ed Miliband secured the leadership of the UK party against the views of the parliamentary party that they eventually led.

The evidence suggests that the Labour Party does better when it has a leader who has the overwhelming confidence of the parliamentary parties. If Jim Murphy is not successful in the leadership contest Scottish Labour could be handicapped in not having a leader who inspires his parliamentary colleagues at a time when it is of critical importance to the future of Scotland and the UK that he or she does.

Quick and effective leadership change aids electoral success

One indication that the current electoral college system of selecting Labour leaders is less favourable to the party winning general elections than selection exclusively by the parliamentary party is that, of the results of the first eleven general elections after World War II, the party won 6 (54%) per cent of the contests; in the seven contests since 1981 with the electoral college system the party has won three times (43%). During the combined two periods since 1945 the Conservative Party, which has always elected its leader from among the parliamentary party, won 9 of 18 elections (50%).

Leadership selection by the parliamentary party is also enables more speedy and effective transitions of leadership. The invoking of an electoral college involves cumbersome arrangements that protect incumbents. The Conservative Party has produced seven different general election winners in the 69 years since 1945 (Churchill, Eden, Macmillan, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron); Labour has only produced three different winners (Atlee, Wilson and Blair) in the same period and one in the 32 years since the electoral college was established in 1981.

The current system of leadership selection is thus a handicap that the Labour Party imposes on itself.

Plans are underway as a result of the Collins Review of party organisation, approved by the National Executive Committee in March 2014 to move towards a system whereby leadership candidates are nominated and shortlisted by MPs and elected by individual party members, including individual affiliating trades unionists, rather than by the electoral college. But these changes will not be finally implemented until 2020 and until then the present arrangements will continue to disadvantage the party in leadership elections and in possible electoral outcomes.

Key sources;

2010 Leadership Elections: Labour Party. Kelly R, Lester P & Durkin M, House of Commons Parliament and Constitution Centre, Standard Note SN/PC/3938





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