New Scots leader transforms Labour's prospects in Scotland - LSE British Policy and Politics blog post

How Jim Murphy's election as Scottish Labour leader transforms the party's prospects in Scotland in 2015 and 2016

- extended analysis in the London School of Economics British Policy and Politics blog by Norman Bonney

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/labours-leadership-election-result-in-scotland-will-transform-the-scottish-political-landscape/

New leadership will transform Labour's propects in Scotland in 2015

Jim Murphy, the newly elected Labour Party leader in Scotland, has the capacity to transform the current unprecedented low morale and standing of the party in Scotland. Having succeeded in the referendum campaign in ensuring that Scotland remained part of the United Kingdom and putting forward proposals for an even stronger Scottish Parliament the party should be celebrating success and future potential rather than nursing a sore head at the apparent resurgence of nationalist forces.

Jim Murphy transform that situation and will make a formidable Scots Labour leader. Like Donald Dewar who led the devolution campaign that established the Scottish Parliament in 1999 and became its first First Minister Murphy is greatly experienced in UK Westminster based politics and government as well as being very familiar with the Scottish political scene, He will be able to bridge the gap between Holyrood and Westminster that the previous more Scottish based Labour leader Joanne Lamont proved unable to do.

This, too, was the advantage that Murphy held over his Edinburgh and Lothian based rivals in the contest,Sarah Boyack and Neil Findlay. Not only does Murphy have this advantage but he demonstrated great campaigning strategy potential during the referendum campaign when he campaigned in a 100 towns across Scotland in a 100 days.

Citizens and pundits can be assured that the election of the new leader will result in a transformation of Labour's prospects in Scotland and a far better performance in the May 2015 UK General Election than is suggested by current opinion polls. The new year will bring new politics to Scotland

Democratic Audit blog - Norman Bonney comments on The Smith Commission proposals for more devolved powers for Scotland

In a blog published by Democratic Audit, Norman Bonney comments on the Smith Commission's proposals for additional devolved powers for the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government

• A step forward that the Scottish Parliament and Scottish Government should be responsible for raising more of the funds that they expend
• a welcome to steps to improve the coordination of work by the two arms of Scottish government - the devolved legislature and executive on the one side and the UK government on the other
• a welcome to public education measures to improve understanding of the workings of devolved and UK government
• devolution of air passenger duty could lead to beggar my neighbour policies across the Scotland/England border and within England
• doubts, based on past track records, about whether devolution to local communities in Scotland will be achieved
• It is right that the BBC should continue to be responsible to the UK Parliament

The full account of the argument can be accessed at  http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=9774

Smith Commission on further devolution: Democratic Audit publishes blogger's comments

Democratic Audit has published part of Norman Bonney's comments on the report of the Smith Commission on additional powers for the Scottish Parliament in a collection of expert's comments at
http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=9547

At least Jim Murphy is honest about religion and politics - unlike most other Scottish elected politicians

The best that can be said about the appeal by Scottish Labour leadership contender Jim Murphy to religious voters is that, at least he is honest and transparent.

Few other elected Scottish politicians openly profess their religious faith and their role in shoring up religious privileges in Scottish society. Most prefer not to make a public issue of the role of religion in politics for fear of upsetting influential religious minorities.They remain silent and assent to religious divisions in schooling, religious voting nominees on education committees, enforced religious observance in schools, and additional Scottish Government financial subsidies to religious organisations which already benefit from taxation relief because of their charitable status.


Even the much vaunted democratic assembly that is the Scottish Parliament recoils from open public debate about these matters – suppressing attempts to have a public discussion of these and other religious privileges.

Scottish Labour leadership candidates assessed

I used entries in YouGov's profiler and other data to assess possible sources of support among the Scottish population for the three candidates standing in the Scottish Labour Leadership election contest to see which of them might most successfully pursue the party's cause in the May 2015 UK general election.

Neil Findlay as a relative newcomer, elected to the Scottish Parliament in 2011, has no profile recorded by YOuGov. He has only come to eminence in the context of the leadership race where he was a surprise candidate, His considerable trades union sponsorship and support gives his candidacy strength and reaches into the sections of the traditional Labour vote which turned towards the 'yes' vote in the independence referendum.

Sarah Boyack has been an MSP since the inception of the Scottish Parliament in 1999 and she has been a Scottish cabinet and shadow cabinet member. She, however, has no profile on the YouGov database which suggests that she does not have high name recognition in Scotland. Her nominations are geographically concentrated in the Edinburgh area - another feature which suggests a weak basis for her candidacy. She has, however, secured the backing of the Scottish Cooperative movement.

Jim Murphy has 675 YouGov panel members who like him. They tend to be very much the type of voter that the Scottish Labour Party must attract back from the SNP if it is to recover its position in Scotland. They are more likely to be males in west and central Scotland who shop at the Coop and who attend religious services.

The debate on BBC2 TV on Tuesday 18 Nov showed all candidates in good light but
I conclude that Jim Murphy is likely to be the most effective Labour leader in gaining popular support for the Labour Party across Scotland in 2015.

Data source
https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/

Labour's self imposed leader selection handicap

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/labours-self-imposed-leadership-and-election-handicaps/

Change of leadership does not improve SNP's gender handicap amongst voters

A fascinating new data source is now available from YouGov generating profiles of people who typically like a brand, an institution or a specific person

Those who typically like Alex Salmond or the SNP tend much more likely to be male than female. This also applies to Nicola Sturgeon, the new SNP Leader and First Minister. She has not extra purchase for attracting female voters.

These results confirm the survey data during the Scottish independence referendum that demonstrated that women were far less likely to vote 'yes' for independence than men. (Prof John Curtice , Daily Record http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/referendum-no-campaign-won-vote-4297546
A ScotCen report by Rachel Ormiston (Aug 2014) documented the persistent gender gap in support for independence and attributed it to a greater feeling of uncertainty as to the outcomes of independence among women compared to men.
http://scotcen-what-scotland-thinks-chart-images.s3.amazonaws.com/files/0dbee102-2d41-473a-b2ec-a384016ee840/minding-the-gap-final-11082014pdf

Women are also less likely to engage in risky behaviour than men. See the evidence at
http://scotsbetterthedevilyouknow.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/gender-gap-grows-canny-scots-women-far.html

Explore the YouGov data source at  https://yougov.co.uk/profiler

Labour's self-imposed leadership and electoral handicap

Labour’s self-imposed leadership and election handicaps

The current travails of the Labour Party leaderships in UK and Scotland illustrate the self-imposed handicap that the party imposed on itself when in 1981 it replaced the previous system, whereby the Leader of the Party and the potential prime minister was elected by the parliamentary party, with the electoral college system where the Labour MPs influence was reduced to one third, with individual members having one third of the vote and the remaining third being allocated to trades unions and other organisations affiliated to the party. 

Ed Miliband's election under this system in 2010 echoes the experience of Neil Kinnock in that both had the support of less than half the UK Parliamentary Party. Ed, indeed, was beaten by his brother David among MPs and among individual party members and only won because of the weight of support from trades unions. To have started his leadership with the support of less than half the Parliamentary Party and party members was not a good omen and that start undoubtedly contributes to his current leadership problems and the electoral challenges facing the party at the present time. The parallel with Neil Kinnock's leadership and his two general election defeats in 1987 and 1992 are not encouraging for Ed Miliband and the Labour Party. 

As the vanguard of the party Labour parliamentarians must have confidence in their leader if the party is to perform effectively and the system for selecting the leader should give them that confidence.

The current Scottish Labour Leadership contest

Similar issues are arising in the current Scottish leadership contest where Jim Murphy MP has won an overwhelming preponderance of nominations from among the Scottish MPs, MSPs and MEPs with 24 MP nominations - with more than half the 41 Scottish Labour MP supporting him. The rival candidates in the leadership race in Scotland have achieved, in the case of Sarah Boyack MSP, three MP nominations, two of whom are from Sarah's home city, Edinburgh; Neil Findlay has secured six. Murphy also outnumbers the other two candidates even though they are from the ranks of MSPs with 17 MSP nominations compared to the combined number of 13 supporting the other two candidates. 

Nonetheless Neil Findlay is gaining considerable support among trades unions and it is conceivable that he will defeat Murphy on the basis of support from the other sections of the electoral college in much the same way as Neil Kinnock and Ed Miliband secured the leadership of the UK party against the views of the parliamentary party that they eventually led.

The evidence suggests that the Labour Party does better when it has a leader who has the overwhelming confidence of the parliamentary parties. If Jim Murphy is not successful in the leadership contest Scottish Labour could be handicapped in not having a leader who inspires his parliamentary colleagues at a time when it is of critical importance to the future of Scotland and the UK that he or she does.

Quick and effective leadership change aids electoral success

One indication that the current electoral college system of selecting Labour leaders is less favourable to the party winning general elections than selection exclusively by the parliamentary party is that, of the results of the first eleven general elections after World War II, the party won 6 (54%) per cent of the contests; in the seven contests since 1981 with the electoral college system the party has won three times (43%). During the combined two periods since 1945 the Conservative Party, which has always elected its leader from among the parliamentary party, won 9 of 18 elections (50%).

Leadership selection by the parliamentary party is also enables more speedy and effective transitions of leadership. The invoking of an electoral college involves cumbersome arrangements that protect incumbents. The Conservative Party has produced seven different general election winners in the 69 years since 1945 (Churchill, Eden, Macmillan, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron); Labour has only produced three different winners (Atlee, Wilson and Blair) in the same period and one in the 32 years since the electoral college was established in 1981.

The current system of leadership selection is thus a handicap that the Labour Party imposes on itself.

Plans are underway as a result of the Collins Review of party organisation, approved by the National Executive Committee in March 2014 to move towards a system whereby leadership candidates are nominated and shortlisted by MPs and elected by individual party members, including individual affiliating trades unionists, rather than by the electoral college. But these changes will not be finally implemented until 2020 and until then the present arrangements will continue to disadvantage the party in leadership elections and in possible electoral outcomes.

Key sources;

2010 Leadership Elections: Labour Party. Kelly R, Lester P & Durkin M, House of Commons Parliament and Constitution Centre, Standard Note SN/PC/3938

2014 Labour Party: Collins Review http://b.3cdn.net/labouruk/a84a677f479406989c_pom6b5w60.pdf 

http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/pages/scottish-labour-leadership-election-candidates

Backing for Jim Murphy as Scottish Labour Party leader

The major weakness in the Labour Party in Scotland in recent years has not been the enthusiasm and commitment of ordinary Labour Party supporters or the strength and solidarity of the support of trades unions but it has been the deep seated antagonism between the parliamentary parties at Westminster and Holyrood. If Labour is to rally from its current internal problems and help save Scotland from further constitutional turmoil, if the SNP were to get more Westminster seats than Labour in the general election of May next year, then it needs a leader who can bridge that divide. Jim Murphy is  the only candidate who has demonstrated wide support in both parliamentary parties - getting substantially more nominations from both sets of parliamentarians than the other two candidates due to his far seeing, articulate and renewed vision for an invigorated Labour Party in Scotland. The other two Lothian based candidates, Sarah Boyack and Neil Findlay, are able and competent and would make good cabinet ministers but I fear that they lack the vision, experience and projection that is needed to unite the Labour Party across Scotland after the referendum and after what should have been a victorious aftermath for the party.

Letter in the Edinburgh Evening News 13 Nov 2014